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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/3415

Title: A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES ANALYSISA OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA TO ASSESS THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM: THE CASE OF MELKASSA, ETHIOPIA
Authors: Tigist, Mideksa
Advisors: Butte Gotu(Dr.)
Keywords: VAR
Sorghum(Gambella#1107) variety
Melkassa
Copyright: Jun-2011
Date Added: 18-Jul-2012
Publisher: Addis Ababa University
Abstract: Climate change affects all economic sectors to some degree, but the agricultural sector is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable. In the last three decades, Ethiopia has been affected by climate-related hazards. Agriculture, the most dominant sector in the national economy, has been most at risk because of its dependence on seasonal rainfall. Anticipated climate change has negatively impacted the agricultural sector due to increased temperatures and decreased or greater variability in precipitation, leading to increased food insecurity. The aim of this thesis is to study the effects of rainfall and temperature on sorghum yield over long period of time. The study consists of thirty two years consecutive summer seasons total summer rainfall in mm, average temperature in degree centigrade and sorghum yield of medium maturing Gambella- 1107 variety in quintal per hectare (Q/h) which is used as a control variety in Melkassa Research Center of EIAR. Multivariate time series analysis that is Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this study. The results obtained show that rainfall and yield are highly variable. Rainfall shock has significant impact on rainfall temperature and yield, temperature shock has a significant impact on temperature rainfall and yield and also yield shock has a significant impact on yield. It was observed that rainfall variation could fully be explained by its own innovations. For temperature, in the first round, 56% variation of temperature has resulted from the shock of its own innovation and 44% variation resulted from the change in rainfall. Yield variation of up to 48.1% is explained by changes in rainfall amounts, the percentage contribution of yield shock for its forecast variance is around 48.6%. There exist high inter annual variability in summer rainfall total which is an evidence to climate variability in the study area and also yield is highly variable. Past year and following year rainfall temperature and yield are auto corelated and rainwater is a principal component in determining sorghum yield.
Description: A Thesis submitted to the Office of Graduate Programs of Addis Ababa University in Partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in Statistics (Bio statistics)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/3415
Appears in:Thesis - Statistics

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