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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2699

Title: PREDICTION OF WHEAT YIELD BY GENERALLARGE AREA MODEL FOR ANNUAL CROPS AS DRIVEN BY REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA
Authors: Jemal, A.
Advisors: Dr. Gizaw Mengistu
Keywords: WHEAT YIELD
ANNUAL CROPS
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA
Copyright: Jul-2010
Date Added: 6-May-2012
Publisher: AAU
Abstract: A new process based crop model, the general large area model (GLAM) for annual crops and a Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) have been used for this study to predict the wheat yield in Southern nations, nationalities and people's region (SNNPR) of Ethiopia. This study aims to demonstrate how RegCM3 and GLAM could be used to forecast wheat yield. RegCM3 is used to predict precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation over SNNPR. These variables are used in GLAM as inputs for yield forcast. All the internal consistency checks that are used to ensure the performance of the crop model prove that GLAM performs magni cently. The observed and the simulated yield exhibit a high correlation on the central part of the study area. However, GLAM yield has a negative bias which is found to be related with water stress. The water stress is con rmed from RegCM3 precipitation forcast which has a negative bias with respect to observed precipitation from Central Research Unit (CRU). As a result of this low correlation of observed and simulated yield has been detected in the North- east and South-west part. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2699
Appears in:Thesis - Physics

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