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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2473

Authors: Girmaw, Teshager
Advisors: Prof. Wolde-Ghiorgis Woldemariam
Keywords: Forecasting
Linear Model
Power Generation
Copyright: Jul-2011
Date Added: 4-May-2012
Publisher: AAU
Abstract: This thesis presents an optimal power generation expansion planning model that considers the growth of fuel prices and its fluctuation, power risks, benefits of carbon-trading in generation expansion decision. The developed model is applied to Ethiopian Electric Power System for ten years in the future. In Ethiopian electric power system, the electric demand has been running ahead of supply. In addition, the growth of fuel price can affect the country economy. Moreover, since the dominant energy consumption is covered by firewood and charcoal (both take a share of 78% of national energy balance), the environmental degradation and deforestation is being continually increased. Therefore, to minimize these problems, a multi-objective model preceded by electric demand forecasting is developed. Attributes, which are considered in the work, include investment and generation cost of the power generating units, the environmental impacts, the amount of imported fuels and carbon-trading benefit. The model is simulated by written code in MATLAB work space. The MATLAB code simulates the model to outcome the generation of each power plant at minimized cost incurred for building the power plants, production of electric energy and fuel to be imported. The forecasted demand shows that the average demand annual growth rate is 34.78% by scenario-1 and 31.98% by scenario-2. EEPCo plan is annually deviated from the forecasted values by an average of 32% and 27% with respect to scenario-1 and scenario-2 respectively. The investment and generation cost expended is an average of 0.0112 USD to produce a kWh electric energy for extra power generation in case of carbon trade consideration in generation expansion planning. It is very low compared to the cost of an average of 0.111 USD to produce a kWh electric energy by regular approach like model-2. Oil fuel for power plants and cooking in urban areas comes to nil in the proposed planning periods.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2473
Appears in:Thesis - Electrical Power Engineering

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